26th June – Is Winter here? For markets that is. (Video)
You may be scratching your head at my title of “Is winter here?” seeing as we’re only in June! As always bear with me.
If like me, you’re a Game of Thrones fan, then you’ll know that for the last series or two one of the underlying themes has been “Winter is coming” a reference to all manner of madness descending upon the lands. If you watch the trailer for the upcoming series then you’ll realise that they’re claiming that #winterishere.
Whats this got to do with trading and the markets? Well a couple of weeks back I wrote a piece entitled ‘Trouble at Mill…’ where I opined that despite the markets hitting new highs all was not well. I was starting to get nervous that we were near a top (if only for the summer). I don’t enjoy making predictions because generally humans (and myself included) are normally quite poor at them. Nevertheless the price action of this month has got me a little apprehensive, hence the short video. I don’t cover the Euro Indices nor the major Tech stocks….but take a look at them, some cracking price action on the Tech stocks. It’s like 99/2000 all over again! (Oh, but of course it’s different this time someone will tell me! Yeah right!)
So what do you think? Has winter come to the markets? Or am I just letting my bearish bias get the better of me? I’d be interested to hear others opinions regardless of their choice of direction.
Let me just say that even though I think markets may roll over for the summer (and beyond) that is not an indication to just sell everything! Far from it…..you keep your powder dry and start to do some scenario analysis. Maybe we’ll get one final heave to trap all the last Bulls? Maybe we’ll meander sideways for the next 3-4 months? Just sit down with your charts and make a few simple plans. Along the lines of IF…THEN plans – ‘IF the market does ABC…..THEN I will do DEF.’ Keep it simple.